The main event for UFC 264 features match between two savvy southpaw strikers.
No one hates fighting other southpaws more than southpaws themselves. Reason being: Most people who fight from that stance tend to predicate their games against orthodox-stance fighters due to the sheer nature of abundance, making it tricky to predict how pairings of lefties will play out.
These somewhat unique stance pairings not only open up traditional lanes of offense that aren’t usually available to southpaws (like outside leg attacks), but I would also argue that these matchups reveal potential problem areas that may not otherwise be apparent to a fighter given what they’re typically allowed to get away with in open-stance affairs.
Dustin Poirier (27-6 MMA, 19-5 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 5’9″ Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72″
Last fight: TKO win over Conor McGregor (Jan 23, 2021)
Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+Former interim UFC lightweight champion
+Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+Regional and amateur MMA titles
+13 KO victories
+7 submission wins
+12 first-round finishes
+KO power
+Aggressive pace and pressure
+Improved overall boxing
^ Cage-cuts, shifts, takes angles
+Accurate left cross and right hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+Underrated wrestling ability
^ Offensively and defensively
+Good transitional grappler
^ Solid submissions and scrambling
+/- 4-2 against UFC-level southpaws
+/- 3-0 in rematches
In Dustin Poirier and [autotag]Conor McGregor[/auotag]’s rematch back at UFC 257, we were privy to a more prolonged view as to how these two play off one another.
Conor McGregor (22-5 MMA, 10-3 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 5’9″ Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 74″
Last fight: TKO loss to Dustin Poirier (Jan. 23, 2021)
Camp: SBG Ireland (Ireland/California)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight and featherweight champion
+ Cage Warriors lightweight and featherweight titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 19 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 14 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile mover
+ Good footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate left cross
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Diverse kicking arsenal
+ Improved wrestling/takedown defense
^ Solid base and balance
+ Underrated grappling acumen
+/- 3-2 against UFC-level southpaws
+/- 1-1 in rematches
McGregor came out with his usual fast-starting pressure, something that has traditionally troubled Poirer – particularly against southpaws who can counter. However, within the first 20 seconds of the fight, Poirier demonstrated the ability to absorb McGregor’s power without panic as he quietly returned a check right hook that served as a key role in the contest.
Poirier would quickly pile on other facets of his game plan by attacking McGregor’s calves and hitting a reactive takedown in open space. This variety gave the former lightweight champion a lot to think about as the back-and-forth action made for a fun first round.
To McGregor’s credit, he did show a more concerted effort to work his lead hand and a better ability to catch kicks and counter as the fight wore on, but Poirier’s style proved to be superior at punctuating the more prolonged exchanges. That said, I see the ball being in McGregor’s court when it comes to making adjustments – something he’s shown to successfully do before.
McGregor’s distance management abilities make him really good at going in and out or slipping from side to side, but his lack of rolls and level changes make him specifically susceptible to check hooks (which played quiet roles in both of his losses to fellow lefties). Far be it from me to tell any professional fighter what to do, but I do reckon that McGregor will need to find ways to feint out those tools in order to mitigate threats.
Not only would feints – something McGregor is competent in – help draw out counters, but they could also assist him in sniffing out calf kick attempts from his American Top Team counterpart.
A staple attack from the famed South Florida camp (to which Dan Lambert credits Wilson Goveia for), the calf kick has been a hallmark for many of the game plans that have come out of American Top Team, as it also assisted in Poirier’s win over McGregor. The Irishman’s attitude and excuses regarding the leg kicks were suspect, to say the least, offering his usual coded responses.
In McGregor’s defense, he could be talking about using leg kicks of his own to cash some checks – something that he did in his rematch with Nate Diaz. After all, Poirier is not beyond having his legs assaulted, as the way he weights his stance also makes him susceptible to someone intent on delivering damage (e.g. Justin Gaethje and Jim Miller).
McGregor has also promised to deliver on a front kick finish, which is a threat I wouldn’t worry about as much considering Poirier’s propensity to use monkey-paw parries (downward parries) and get his head offline whenever those attacks do come his way.
Nevertheless, McGregor is not beyond attempting somewhat sizeable changes in order to fulfill his own prophecies, so don’t be surprised to see the former champ-champ do something drastic like show an orthodox stance. Although I don’t think that sort of switch would serve McGregor well from a defensive standpoint, I still suspect that his boxing success will largely come down to whether or not he can stay discipline without being rote with his lead hand, regardless of stance.
Despite opening as the underdog, public money has come in on the American to completely flip the betting lines, listing Poirier -120 and McGregor +100 as of this writing.
Even if we can all be a bit guilty when it comes to over-correcting the proverbial steering wheel in this sport, I still don’t disagree with the betting spread or line movement cited above. Though statistics suggest that the younger person tends to come out on top of trilogies at over a 90 percent clip outside of heavyweight and women’s divisions, I’ll lean more on my stylistic reads given the minute difference in age here.
Both men do their best work whenever they can get their counterparts between the cage and inner-black octagon lines, but one man fights better off of the back foot.
Despite often being hailed for his countering abilities, McGregor somewhat surprisingly starts to fall apart when forced to fight backward or with his back up against the fence. He does show solid fundamentals with head position to go along with some grip and shoulder savvy inside of the clinch, I’m just not sure it will be enough to stay safe down the stretch.
Ultimately, unless McGregor is able to bring back the old problems that used to plague Poirier in regards to fast starts and emotional gamesmanship, then I suspect that the 32-year-old superstar will need to have a near-perfect, pot-shotting performance over the course of 25 minutes in order to have success past the second round. But with the evidence in each man’s catalog making that a hard ask, I’ll pick Poirier by third-round TKO for his ability to better navigate exchanges regardless of direction, as lead hands and check hooks should still be key.